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Methodology

How TariffWatch estimates exposure — and what it does not do

By Andy Gaber, Founder · Published August 9, 2026 · Last updated September 11, 2026

TariffWatch lives on tariffwatch.app at /tariffwatch paths. Free tools first: paste HTS codes and (optionally) a country of origin. Paid Watchlist keeps watching those codes. Estimate and monitor come first. We do not auto-file comments or entries, we do not promise you will save $X, and an estimate is not a clearance.

Rules version: section232-v4-2026-06-08-32d02470 — content-derived from the Annex I inclusions table + BIS-14 proposed-article table. Every scan response includes this exact string (result.rulesVersion).

1. What TariffWatch is

Most “tariff tools” sell a broker workflow, a filing desk, or a promise that someone else will get your goods through CBP. TariffWatch sells a narrower job: tell you whether the HTS codes you already have look in-scope for current Section 232 metal rates or a named BIS proposal, using the public sources we can cite, then offer Watchlist if you want that check on a recurring code list.

We are not a customs broker, not a filer of record, and not counsel. We do not publish fake filing counts. Support is support@tariffwatch.app only — the live TariffWatch host inbox, not a retired brand mailbox.

2. Source hierarchy (YMYL)

Regulatory claims on this product cite primary sources in this order. Secondary blogs and our own guides are not the authority:

  1. USITC Harmonized Tariff Schedule — hts.usitc.gov. Chapter / heading identity for the codes you paste.
  2. Federal Register — Presidential proclamations (Apr 6 / Jun 8 2026 rate basis) and notice 2026-15961 (published Aug 6 2026) for the 14 proposed BIS derivative articles. In-force Annex I inclusions cite FR 2025-15819 (effective Aug 18 2025) and the Mar 2025 Annex I base list (FR 2025-03598).
  3. BIS / regulations.gov — docket BIS-2026-0331, XRIN 0694-XC166. Watchlist monitors this public notice stream against your codes. We do not POST comments for you.

If our result and a primary-source lookup disagree, email a screenshot to support@tariffwatch.app. Corrections land on /corrections, not in a support-ticket black box.

3. How duty-impact and checker inputs work

You paste HTS codes (4–10 digits; we normalize punctuation). The engine matches in precedence order — same function the landing checker, /tariffwatch/checker, and the Duty Impact Calculator call:

  1. Proclamation 11032 annexes (91 FR 34085, effective Jun 8 2026) — each code is matched to the annex that lists it: Annex I-A 50%, I-B 25%, I-C 25%, III a temporary 15%, Annex II removed, all on full customs value (Proclamation 11021, effective Apr 6 2026). Primary-chapter codes (72/73/74/76) not listed on any annex are shown as unconfirmed, not guessed.
  2. In-force Annex I inclusions — specific HTSUS statistical codes outside those chapters added in 2025 (FR 2025-15819); they are now rated by the Proclamation 11032 annex that lists them, on full customs value, and shown as unconfirmed if no annex lists them. Heading-level / captured-subset match — not a full 10-digit classification.
  3. Proposed BIS-14 — a code is priced only if it is a code FR 2026-15961 names (or a statistical child of one, or the named code minus trailing zeros, e.g. 8716.20 for 8716.20.00). A named statistical line the current HTS no longer has is matched as its 8-digit parent: the notice names 9205.10.0000, which the current HTS splits into 9205.10.00.40 and 9205.10.00.80, so both are named. A shorter code that also covers unnamed codes (e.g. 8412.90, 8426.41, 8544.49) or a bare 4-digit heading gets “contains named code X; enter the full 10-digit code” and +0. Filled steel containers match only their exact contents codes. Always labeled proposed. Never conflated with #1/#2.
  4. Unconfirmed vs likely out of scope — if the chapter has known inclusions activity we track but this code is not in our captured subset, we say unconfirmed (do not assume clear). If no known Section 232 metals mechanism touches the chapter, we say likely out of scope — still not a clearance.

Annual customs value is split evenly across valid codes unless you override per line. Two in-scope 50% codes on a $100,000 book show $50,000 total exposure, not $100,000. Even-split is an estimator convenience — not your commercial invoice.

Duty Impact Calculator (/tariffwatch/duty-impact-calculator) runs that same engine, then multiplies by a country-of-origin load factor (Canada/Mexico USMCA-ish relief, China stack, EU/Japan/Korea arrangements, or “other”). That factor is an order-of-magnitude model of stacked regimes — country of origin does not change the underlying chapter-72/73/74/76 Section 232 rate itself. The page says so.

The 15% exemption (Apr 6 2026 proclamation: articles whose metal content is less than 15% by weight; never available for chapters 72, 73, 74 or 76) is not modeled. Every estimate here is on full customs value, even if your product might qualify. Confirm the exemption with your broker; we cannot verify your composition data.

4. What Watchlist watches

A free check is one-shot. You leave with a result. Paid Watchlist stores up to 20 HTSUS subheadings after Stripe checkout and emails a Monday 9am UTC digest of BIS / Federal Register notices from the trailing 7 days whose titles match those codes (full code, 6-digit subheading, or 4-digit heading), with comment deadlines flagged. Marketing copy calls this weekly monitoring; the contract is recurring + alert, not a promise that we filed anything overnight or walked ACE like a broker.

Watchlist is $29/mo or $290/yr (two months free). The honest checkout deep-link is /tariffwatch/watchlist?checkout=watchlist&utm_source=site&utm_medium=methodology&utm_campaign=tw_watchlist&utm_content=tw_methodology. Not a fake flash sale.

5. What we do not cover

  • Not a binding tariff classification, and not customs classification advice under 19 CFR 111.
  • Does not authenticate to ACE, a broker ABI, or regulations.gov as you.
  • Does not auto-file comments, inclusion rebuttals, or CBP entries.
  • Does not guarantee clearance, acceptance, or a dollar amount of duty saved.
  • Chapter/heading-level matching — exclusions, drawback, first-sale valuation, and 10-digit country-specific rates belong with your broker.
  • Section 301 (China) is noted as a stack, not priced as a first-class ruleset.
  • This page is not another farm of derivative-article or inclusion-rebuttal templates. Those hubs already exist; we are not expanding them here.

A green-looking “likely out of scope” is still an estimate. Only your broker and the primary sources confirm what CBP will assess. We say that on the checker UI too — not only here.

6. Free limits — no hard lock

TariffWatch does not use the PixelProof / EntryProof browser localStorage soft-paywall (3 checks + email bonus + 24h cooldown). Free tools stay free. The scan API rate-limits abuse at 5 requests/minute and 50/hour per IP (HTTP 429, retry shortly). That is an abuse guard, not a “premium locked” wall and not a fake seat countdown.

Leaving an email after a scan sends the exposure report and then offers Watchlist checkout. It does not buy extra free scans. Exit-intent and floater dismissals use localStorage when present and fail open if storage is missing (private mode) — they never brick the product.

7. What we will not claim on this page

  • Not legal advice and not customs-broker advice.
  • Does not file comments or entries for you.
  • No CBP / BIS / Commerce clearance guarantee.
  • No “save $X” guarantee.
  • No auto-file, and no invented partner badge.

TariffWatch is a data and workflow tool that estimates Section 232 tariff exposure from publicly available Federal Register, USITC, and CBP data. TariffWatch is NOT a licensed customs broker under 19 CFR 111, NOT a filer of record, and NOT a legal-advice service. This is not customs classification advice. Compliance decisions remain the responsibility of the importer and their customs broker or trade attorney. TariffWatch does not guarantee that any classification, exposure estimate, or comment letter will be accepted by CBP, BIS, or Commerce.

Privacy basics: we store the HTS codes and value you scanned and a hashed IP for abuse control; email if you give it; Stripe if you subscribe. Scan rows are kept 30 days. Privacy · Cookies · FAQ · Terms.

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Existing sitemap guides (Section 232 guide, first-sale, HTS beginners, derivative-article list) stay on those URLs. This page is methodology only — not another explainer guide.

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